Risk Assessment and Allocation for Highway Construction Management

Risk Management Matrix - High Probability, High Impact

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Figure 22. WSDOT cost and risk status report on the I-405 Congestion Relief and Bus Rapid Transit Projects, revised July 2003. The report contains the following:

Scenario: Tukwila to Bothell (Option C)

Project descriptions:

• Continuous multimodal corridor improvement projects from I-5 in Tukwila to SR-522 in Bothell.
• Adds one lane each direction from I-5 to SR-181 in Tukwila.
• Adds two lanes each direction from SR-181 in Tukwila to I-90 in Bellevue.
• Adds one lane each direction from I-90 in Bellevue to SR-522 in Bothell.
• On SR-167, adds one lane between I-405 and South 180th Street.
• Constructs bus rapid transit system with stations, H-O-V direct access ramps, and park-and-ride lots and coaches.
• Expands the vanpool program.

Project benefits:

• Reduces congestion and improves freight movement.
• Provides bus rapid transit system from SeaTac to Lynwood.
• Constructs 2,300 new park-and-ride spaces.
• Adds 600 new vanpools and increases commute reduction programs.
• Improves water resources.

Project risks:

• Changing environmental requirements for project mitigation (storm water, wetlands, fish resources, and streams) may increase project costs-primarily for added right-of-way purchases.
• Delays in right-of-way purchases may result in construction delays and project cost increases.
• Early stage of project development leads to scope uncertainty.
• Legal challenges and delays in obtaining environmental permits may result in project delay.
• Utility relocations may require extra time to negotiate and complete.

Schedule:

Begin construction in 2006-2007 and end construction in 2013-2014.

Project cost range:

A Cost Estimate Validation Process graph shows probability on the y-axis and total project cost in future dollars on the x-axis. There is a 10 percent chance the cost will be less than $4.2 billion, a 50 percent chance the cost will be less than $4.7 billion, and a 90 percent chance the cost will be less than $5.1 billion.

What's changed since 2002:

• Scope: Project limits are smaller.
• Schedule: Begin-construction range has been delayed up to 1 year.
• End-construction range has been accelerated 2 years.
• Costs: Costs have gone down approximately $1 billion due to scope revisions.
• Risk management: Identifying new strategies for improved environmental clearances and right-of-way processes. Coordinating decision strategies with FHWA.

Financial fine print (key assumptions):

• Full project funding becomes available in July 2005. State I-405 Nickel funds will roll over into this package.
• Inflation escalation is to 2010, the approximate midpoint of construction.
• Additional Federal, State, regional, and local money may be needed.
• Project cost range includes $18.5 million in past expense, beginning in 1999.
• Assumes funding decisions do not interrupt or cause construction delays.

Level of project design:

low on a scale of low-medium-high.

July 16, 2006 Washington State Department of Transportation

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